The application of bio jet fuels until 2050, scenarios for future developments

Abstract

After the first flight was made in 1903 the growth of aviation has been enormous since then and is expected to go on the coming decades. In 2009 2.3 billion passengers and 38 million tons of freight have been handled by airlines. Over time it became clear that aviation has some large negative side effects. At the moment especially the effects on climate change get a lot of attention. Bio jet fuels are teen as the only option to reduce the climate impact of aviation in the coming decades. This study focuses on what possible transition routes are according to stakeholders involved. This is done by performing 20 interviews and using this data as input for four social technical scenarios. Four scenarios have been created which deviated on the rate of technological development and whether or not sustainability policies were applied. The scenario with a high technological development and a focus on energy security will have the highest application rate in 2050. Due to the use of third generation bio jet fuels based on algae in this scenario also makes significant improvements in sustainability. When the focus is immediately on sustainability the large amount of regulations and requirements will a constraining factor for a real market implementation. A focus that is first on energy security and later a shift towards sustainability would probably give the best results. During the interviews it also became clear that the visions as mentioned by stakeholders show some notable deviations from the literature. Especially the visions on the different possible feedstocks show some large differences. The creation of a transition arena in which stakeholders discuss these differences is recommendable.