Industry Wide Supply Constraint Risks to Fast Large Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Deployment 2010-2050

Abstract

Fast large scale implementation of carbon (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) in the period 2010-2050 as described by the OECD IEA BLUE Map scenario is ‘ambitious’ (IEA, 2009). As innovation is a dynamic process characterized by feedback mechanisms and interactions, an innovation system should be built up. This innovation system includes the function (activity) resource mobilization and the structural components supply side and knowledge infrastructure. Physical and human resources that cannot be supplied fast enough in the needed quantity or quality form supply constraints. Therefore the question is asked: in what way industry wide supply constraints form a risk to the fast large scale deployment of CCS as described by the IEA Scenario and in what way can these be mitigated? A first important methodological result is the success of the combination of a historical comparison and the assessment of supply constraints. A second methodological result is the clarifying effect of the distinction (based on innovation system theory) between current resource mobilization and the ability of the supply industry or knowledge infrastructure to increase. An empirical result is that the components that have been found to pose supply constraint risks have all a limited fulfillment of the quantitative resource mobilization in combination with unfavorable supply industry dimensions of exogenous demand growth or material availability. The combination of a qualitatively limited resource mobilization with the corresponding unfavorable supply industry dimension competition has occurred much less for physical resources. Especially the post-combustion capture option suffers from supply constraints but compression and transport do equally, notably in China and India. For human resources there is both a supply constraint of insufficient availability and supply constraints of insufficient performance. The successful large scale deployments of FGD and CCGT have been much less than what the IEA scenario describes for CCS, while not having had any supply constraints. Therefore it seems unlikely that large scale CCS deployment will go as fast as described by the IEA scenario. The gathered data about the specific resource mobilization and supply industry / knowledge infrastructure dimensions for different world regions could be further fine-tuned or confirmed by more thorough industry size and growth analyses. Gradual and long timeframe policies, in combination with early investments with public funds and a realistic view of a geographical distribution would be a possibility to decrease the identified supply constraint risks.