Determining offshore wind and deep geothermal technology deployment potentials in the Netherlands for the period 2010-2020. Towards a comprehensive model of deployment potentials for renewable energy technologies

Abstract

Understanding the emergence of renewable energy technologies is recently put central in research since the need to influence innovation towards more sustainable directions is high on political agendas. Where many studies focus principally on cost developments for deployment potentials of renewable energy technologies, this research focuses primarily on supply constraints of renewable energy technologies in order to determine their physical deployment over time. This supply-based perspective provided insight in the prominent factors of market upscale processes and thereby revealed prospected deployment bottlenecks over time. This research determines the deployment potential of deep geothermal and offshore wind energy in the Netherlands for the period 2010-2020. The analysis shows - supposing that the Dutch government and the deep geothermal industry take all required precautionary measures in 2011 - that approximately 400 deep geothermal doublets and approximately 1700 offshore wind turbines may be realized in 2020. The results of the deployment potentials show that the projection by the Dutch Energy Research Centre of 11PJ in 2020 is quasi-ambitious and that the target of the Dutch government of 6000MW in 2020 is very ambitious. It shows furthermore that the mandatory EU renewable energy target of 14% of the final energy use in the Netherlands in 2020 can be attained much earlier if the proposed actions in this report are undertaken by the Dutch government as well as the deep geothermal and offshore wind industry. It shows subsequently that the Dutch renewable energy target of 20% of the primary energy use in the Netherlands in 2020 can merely be attained if the proposed actions in this report are undertaken by the Dutch government as well as the deep geothermal and offshore wind industry.

Innovation system analyses provide insights about inducement and blocking mechanisms and provide detailed recommendations for policy. These outcomes are however often predominantly based on on qualitative assessments. Deployment potential assessments provide insights in possible market upscale bottlenecks and may strengthen the policy recommendation outcomes of innovation system analyses with quantitative arguments. The findings of this research need additional and more extensive empirical research in order to test the further usefulness of the introduced deployment potential framework.