The Threat to European Security or One of Many: The 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Party Policy Stances

Abstract

The European security posture has seen changes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While governments of European Union (EU) Member States have taken a variety of measures to condemn and punish Russia and support Ukraine, it remains unclear whether the invasion, by being perceived as a political shock, has also led to changes in foreign and security policy preferences of political parties throughout Europe. Even though governments are the primary foreign and security policy actors, the role of political parties should not be underestimated. A historical institutionalist perspective is used to provide a theoretical understanding of political parties' reactions to the Russian invasion. To map the changes in orientations of Polish, German and Dutch political parties, their last electoral programmes prior to the 2022 invasion and their first post-invasion electoral programme were analysed. The results show that while six parties changed their foreign and security policy orientation, only four of these were related to the invasion. Moreover, just two of these changes were linked to the Russo-Ukrainian war being perceived as a political shock. Nonetheless, a total of thirteen political parties’ manifestos across three European states contained statements linked to political shocks. Furthermore, the research finds support that parties’ position on the political spectrum is a better prediction for their foreign and security policy preferences than whether they perceived the invasion as a political shock. This thesis finds no evidence that the opposition-coalition cleavage influences parties’ support for government support to Ukraine.