| dc.description.abstract | The Frisian Inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea consists of two subbasins: the dynamic Pinkegat and
the more stable Zoutkamperlaag. External drivers, including the Lauwerszee closure (1969), gas
extraction (since 1986), and storm events, have shaped tidal dynamics and intertidal flat
development. While historical sediment budgets have sustained these flats, rising sea levels may
outpace sediment input, threatening the Wadden Sea’s role in the East Atlantic flyway. This
shows the need to assess how tidal systems such as the Frisian Inlet adapt to changing conditions.
However, the direct impact of accelerated sea-level rise is difficult to isolate within natural
variability. To address this, the Lauwerszee closure and gas extraction are proxies, having caused
long-term shifts in tidal dynamics and intertidal area development that mimic the expected
consequences of rising sea levels. This study analyzes the morphological evolution of the Frisian
Inlet using hypsometric curves, cumulative surface area changes, and tidal flat slope gradients.
Interpolation techniques, variability analysis, and climate assessment further quantify the
dynamics in both subbasins. Additionally, sedimentation rate under different sea-level rise and
subsidence scenarios is evaluated alongside the potential ecological implications of tidal flat
slope evolution. The central question in this research is: How does the Frisian Inlet respond to
accelerated sea-level rise in terms of spatio-temporal intertidal flat development?
Following the 1969 closure of the Lauwerszee, wave-driven erosion intensified in Pinkegat,
while Zoutkamperlaag remained more stable. Post closure, wind redistributed sediment in
Zoutkamperlaag, but reduced tidal inundation limited supply to higher flats. As a long-term
response, both basins experienced mid intertidal zone decline due to infilled channels and
increased wave action, though Zoutkamperlaag’s resistant layers provided greater protection. Gas
extraction since 1986 had no impact, but storms (2010–2023) caused erosion in Pinkegat and
relative stability in Zoutkamperlaag due to contrasting dynamics. Vaklodingen’s low temporal
resolution limits the detection of these short-term trends. Slope differences affect sedimentation
and ecology: Zoutkamperlaag promotes sedimentation but limits adaptability, while Pinkegat
retains less sediment but enhances foraging. Based on sea-level rise and subsidence scenarios,
sediment supply may be insufficient to maintain current topography, as Zoutkamperlaag would
require a sedimentation rate of 0.69–0.82 Mm³/yr and Pinkegat would require 0.33–0.37 Mm³/yr. | |
