Staying or Leaving? Intergenerational Livelihood Activities and Non-Migration Decisions in Flood-Prone Settlements of Kathmandu, Nepal.

Abstract

Despite rising flood risks in Kathmandu, many low-income residents continue to live in high-risk areas. They face complex livelihood challenges, including socio-economic and political challenges. However, staying at risk is not new for them, they have been adapting to such consequences for generations. While prior research has examined environmental (non-)migration and intergenerational livelihoods separately, little is known about how livelihood changes across generations influence non-migration decisions in flood-prone urban settings, particularly through an intersectionality lens. This study addresses that gap by exploring how evolving livelihood strategies over generations shape decisions to stay or migrate in the context of increasing urban vulnerability in Kathmandu.

A qualitative approach was used, based on 32 in-depth interviews with residents from two informal settlements, Thapathali and Sinamangal, including at least two members from different generations in each family. One expert from Nepal Mahila Ekata Samaj was interviewed. Findings show that while younger participants generally have more access to education and aspire to different careers, many still end up in unstable, informal-sector jobs similar to their parents. Intergenerational learning plays a dual role: some younger participants follow familiar paths because they inherit skills and knowledge, while many parents actively encourage their children to pursue education to secure better futures.

Structural constraints, including economic hardship, limited educational access, gender roles, and caste-based expectations, continue to shape livelihood options. Livelihood changes across generations are shaped by factors such as natural hazards, physical health, economic necessity, urbanization, poor working conditions, disrupted education, and social norms and expectations. These, in turn, affect aspirations to migrate. Older residents often migrated to the city for better work opportunities, but now remain due to low rent prices, community ties, and lack of alternatives, even though they live in precarious conditions. Younger generations are more open to moving, but often face financial and social barriers, particularly married women, frequently constrained by household responsibilities.

Intergenerational livelihood patterns reveal resilience, adaptation, learning, and aspiration. A key finding is the desire among youth to break from informal work through education and formal employment and seek work opportunities abroad. These aspirations are driven not only by economic motivations but also by a desire to escape life in flood-prone informal settlements. Future research could explore how social media shapes these aspirations. Additionally, studies using mixed-methods could help analyse how identity, livelihoods, and migration intersect. Expanding access to education and training is a key policy recommendation.