The Gap Between a Worried Attitude About Climate Change and Green Voting Behavior Based on the Influence of Psychological and Economic Factors

Abstract

Many large-scale surveys conducted in recent years indicate that most EU citizens are deeply worried about the climate crisis. Despite this, results from recent national elections throughout Europe showed that voters largely favor political parties that do not prioritize climate issues, indicating the existence of a behavioral gap. According to recent literature this gap might be explained by the influence of various psychological and economic factors. In order to investigate the explanatory value of these factors, their effects were each tested over different time periods prior to elections, using empirical data form the European Social Survey (ESS). One robust finding is that individuals who live in countries with high economic wealth in form of GDP per capita, tend to vote more in line with their concern. Aligning with the expectation of this economic factor’s influence on the gap and contributing evidence to the theory of Post-materialism (1977). Other notable findings include that exposure to the impacts of climate disasters less than a year before the elections, increases voter coherence. A similar effect is found with disaster frequency when measured over a longer period, partially aligning with the expectation of this factor’s influence on the gap. Based on this study’s findings, political parties are advised to make use of an external communication strategy that addresses green as well as economically viable initiatives in order to minimize the gap. This research serves as a pilot to inspire other researchers to further investigate the gap, as a lot of the factors’ explanatory value remains to be explored in future research.