The effect of the wolf (Canis lupus) on a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the Netherlands

Abstract

In this master thesis I developed and explored a mathematical model to study the potential effect of the wolf (Canis lupus) on a hypothetical outbreak of African Swine Fever in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the Netherlands (specifically the Veluwe). A deterministic mathematical SIR model was developed to simulate a wild boar population, African Swine Fever, infectious carcasses, and the predation behavior of wolves, allowing the exploration of different scenarios of control and intervention. Wolves and carcass transmission were found to have an effect on disease dynamics and control effort. The initial analyses show that the model has potential for more in-depth study and policy support, and it can be valuable to develop this further.