| dc.description.abstract | In the coming century and beyond it is certain that sea-level will continue to rise, having a big impact
on millions of people and their environment. However, the extent and rate of future sea-level rise (SLR)
remain uncertain. To address the consequences posed by future SLR, long-term adaptation planning is
needed (IPCC, 2022). This thesis aims to explore the solution space for coastal adaptation to SLR in the
Southwestern Delta of the Netherlands. Central question of the thesis is: “which adaptation tipping
points (ATP’s) and adaptation decisions are most decisive for the solution space for coastal adaptation
to SLR, focussing on the Southwestern Delta and the management targets here for the sandy coastlines,
flood risks and freshwater supply ”? It presents an assessment that considers the risk caused by an ATP,
as well as the need for incremental or transformational measures to reduce this risk, referred to as the
“decisiveness” of an ATP. Insight into pivotal decisions could provide short-term action and potentially
avoid mal adaptation. Dutch water management favours adaptive delta management via a DAPP
approach (Haasnoot et al., 2019c). Within four solution directions (“Protect-closed”, “Protect-open”,
“Seaward” and “Accommodate”) the solution space of adaption to SLR can be described. This thesis is
based on the same approach.
ATP’s were collected for the Southwestern Delta based on available reports and data bases and analysed.
For the (sub)-basins of the Southwestern Delta, a few ATP’s were aggregated with exception of the
Eastern Scheldt basin, where substantial ATP’s were aggregated. Consequently, the focus of this thesis
is predominantly on the Eastern Scheldt basin as the main aim is to develop and test a method to
determine the decisiveness of ATP’s. Further research is required to decide if all used ATP’s represent
the complete picture in the Southwestern Delta.
Findings of ATP assessment of the Eastern Scheldt basin are amongst others that, with higher sea-levels
more decisive ATP’s occur and incremental adaptations may result in transformational adaptations. For
example, with a minimal SLR of 1 meter the decision to keep the Eastern Scheldt basin open or closed
arises. In this thesis all (sub)-areas were assessed separately. It is recommended to conduct a follow-up
study in which the sub-areas of the Southwestern Delta are combined based on the method assessed
in this thesis | |
