The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on inter-European maritime and aviation trade flows

Abstract

This study examined the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on inter-European maritime and aviation trade flows. It focused on changes in bilateral trade flows between pre-Covid-19 and post-Covid-19 periods, as well as testing the significance of the effects between Covid-19 and these trade flows divided by transport mode. This research used a combination of network analysis and a gravity model of trade to uncover and visualize changes in the trade networks and determine the extent to which Covid-19 influenced bilateral trade flows. The results showed changes in both maritime and aviation trade. Maritime trade experienced a decrease in connectivity and trading volumes, while aviation trade saw a decrease in connectivity but increased trading volumes. The gravity model analysis confirmed that gross domestic product (GDP) and distance were key factors influencing maritime and aviation trade flows, with higher GDP associated with increased trade and greater distances leading to decreased trade. The study also explored the influence of Covid-19 proxied by the number of Covid-19 deaths, the stringency of Covid-19 restrictions, and the pre-Covid-19 China dependency ratio on maritime and aviation trade. The findings revealed a significant negative relationship between the number of Covid-19 deaths in the destination country and maritime trade and a negative relationship between the number of Covid-19 deaths in the origin country and aviation trade. Stringency in Covid-19 restrictions did not significantly influence trade flows, and a higher pre-Covid-19 China dependency ratio negatively affected maritime trade in the destination country and aviation trade in both the origin and destination countries. This research contributes to understanding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on inter-European trade, the varying trade effects of different transport modes, and confirms the importance of economic factors and geographic proximity in shaping trade patterns.