The welfare/incarceration trade-off in the Netherlands

Abstract

Several studies have shown a negative relation between the level of welfare provisions and the incarceration rate in countries or states. This effect is referred to as the “welfare/incarceration trade-off”, and the theoretical explanation of it centers around the idea that welfare and incarceration are related in that they are opposing ways of governing the socially marginal. No studies so far have investigated the welfare/incarceration trade-off in the Netherlands, specifically. Using time-series regression, the extent to which there has been an association between the growth and subsequent decline of the Dutch welfare state and changing incarceration rates since 1960 is estimated. Results show an asymmetrical effect. Increasing welfare was found to be associated with decreasing incarceration. Decreasing welfare was also found to be associated with decreasing incarceration, though this effect was weaker. The results thus indicate that a welfare/incarceration trade-off occurred in the Netherlands during times of increasing welfare, but not during times of welfare retrenchment.