| dc.description.abstract | The aim of this study is to comprehend how the aviation sector could contribute towards reaching the climate goals as stated in the Paris Agreement of 2015. This is done by exploring the knowledge gaps in the representation of the aviation sector in the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), in which this study is conducted. First, the key drivers of air travel demand are identified, namely income approximated through Gross Domestic Product in combination with population growth. Secondly, the most important emissions mitigation pathways mentioned in scientific literature are reviewed. Through this analysis, several contributors to emission mitigation are identified, namely the usage of sustainable aviation fuels, the introduction of alternative propulsion technologies, the improvement of the efficiency of the fleet, and a modal shift from air travel to high-speed train. Thirdly, this study further explored current literature on technological and economic characteristics of the aviation sector and used this knowledge to update the representation of the aviation sector in IMAGE. This newly improved version of IMAGE was then utilized to develop four different mitigation scenarios, in comparison with a baseline scenario based on SSP2, to identify how demand and technological change contribute to emission mitigation. Additionally, policy targets to reach the climate targets of 1.5 °C’ and 2 °C are incorporated in IMAGE to understand how the emissions reduction differ if these restrains are met. The results of the developed scenarios show that alternative propulsion technologies and efficiency improvements have limited effect on emissions mitigation. However, the modal shift to high-speed train can reduce CO2 emissions considerably, while the greatest reduction potential is achieved if the aviation sector increased its share of bio-fuel in the fuel mix. These results demonstrate the importance of sustainable aviation fuels for emission mitigation. Importantly, however, the scenarios also indicate that net zero emissions are practically unreachable by the end of the century, even if a profound carbon tax in included in IMAGE. It becomes clear that further effort in technology development and additional policies are fundamental to potentially decarbonizing the aviation sector as a whole. | |
