The forgotten sectors - Alternative drivetrain technologies and fuels to diminish CO2 emission in the Dutch aviation, the freight road and the maritime sector in 2020 and 2050.

Abstract

There is a growing awareness that CO2 emissions may lead to climate change. To avert this threat, measures to reduce CO2 emission are investigated. Up till now, an overview of the CO2 emission reduction that can be achieved in the aviation, maritime or road freight segments is missing. Such an overview is important because these sectors together emit a significant amount of CO2 and increasing emissions are expected in the future. This report provides an overview of the CO2 reduction potential from new drivetrains and fuels in the three sectors. These potentials are based on estimates of the technical potential, the cost-effectiveness and the Innovation System Performance.

As a start, CO2 emission projections for the three sectors toward 2050 were made. By combining these projections with CO2 emission reduction possibilities of drivetrain technologies and alternative fuels, a technical CO2 emission reduction potential is arrived at. The cost-effectiveness of drivetrain technologies and fuels values are calculated and compared with cost estimates for CO2 in 2020 and 2050 to provide insight from an economical point of view.

It is assumed that the performance and development of a Technology Specific Innovation System influences the chance that a large share of the potentials (by drivetrain technologies and fuels) may actually be exploited in 2020 and 2050. The CO2 emission reductions that can maximally be achieved in 2020 and 2050 are estimated by considering an average diffusion time based on historical technologies. We assume that the build-up of a Technology Specific Innovation System is linked to the diffusion along an S-curve. Four Technology Specific Innovation Systems are analyzed on their Innovation System Performance to reveal the current weak spots that need to be improved in order to achieve the estimated CO2 emission reductions.

The research indicates that the drivetrain technologies and alternative fuels are currently in the pre-development phase. The analysis of the four Innovation Systems pointed out that the quality and/or quantity of these Innovation Systems and the extent to which the Innovation System functions are served currently falls short to start diffusion among society. Significant improvements have to occur in these Innovation Systems to achieve the potential CO2 emission reductions of drivetrain technologies and alternative fuels.

The results show that significant (Innovation System and Innovation System Function) improvements have to occur to lower the cost-effectiveness of the technological options towards 2020 and 2050.

Both industry and government should act and invest in diminishing CO2 emissions by improving the current Innovation System’s quality and quantity and Innovation System Functions, otherwise the aviation, freight road and maritime sector will indeed become the forgotten sectors.