Characteristics of the Future Eddying Ocean Circulation

Abstract

The forced CMIP5 climate model simulations under the RCP scenarios have given us a glimpse of possible future (up to the year 2100) climate states. However, the CMIP5 model results only provide limited information on the variability of crucial climate quantities (e.g. heat transport) since the mesoscale processes can not be represented with the rough resolution (mostly 1◦ horizontally). Recently, a simulation with a high-resolution (eddying ocean) version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) has been performed under the RCP8.5 scenario over the period 2000-2100. In this study, we analyze different ocean variables in both the Arctic and the At- lantic basin with the data provided by CESM. Then we further analyze the strength and stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results show a continuous weakening trend of the AMOC and suggest the AMOC enters a bistable regime.