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dc.rights.licenseCC-BY-NC-ND
dc.contributor.advisorVuuren, D.P. van
dc.contributor.authorVisser, L.E. de
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-16T18:00:13Z
dc.date.available2020-09-16T18:00:13Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.urihttps://studenttheses.uu.nl/handle/20.500.12932/37653
dc.description.abstractGlobal temperatures are rising due to accumulating greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Temperatures will continue to rise if additional climate policy’s are not implemented. This would lead to irreversible losses of natural systems, affecting human societies as well. Therefore, substantial emission reductions must take place through the implementation of mitigation strategies. Project Drawdown is a study that analysed how to reach the moment of “Drawdown” - the point in time where emissions start to decline. Projection Drawdown provides diverse mitigation options in two possible scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2). However, it is not clear what methodology was used, and if the study accounted well enough for interactions between mitigation implementations, as well inertias and regional variability. Such dynamics are accounted for in integrated assessment model IMAGE. During this thesis, IMAGE was used to assess the effectiveness of Project Drawdown’s mitigation measures when they are mutually implemented. For this, assessments were done at a global and sectoral scale including the sectors electricity, transport, residential, industry and non-CO2. For each of these sectors, a shortlist was created, including mitigation targets for 2050. The shortlists were collected data from literature and expert knowledge of PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The implementations of these targets resulted in IMAGE scenarios - Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Moreover, for each sector the net reduction potential in 2050 was calculated for Project Drawdown’s mitigation measures, and subtracted from the AMPERE baseline. Using linear interpolation towards 2050, two “Drawdown” scenarios were created. The results of the IMAGE scenarios and Drawdown scenarios were compared on a global and sectoral scale, together with AMPERE and SSP2 baselines and 2°C scenarios. Global findings of Project Drawdown and IMAGE were relatively similar for Scenario 1, reaching emission levels of 59 - 53 GtCO2-equivalent respectively. However, Scenario 2 showed a greater difference, with emission levels of 35 - 49.5 GtCO2equivalent respectively. Underlying differences were evaluated by means of the sectoral assessments. For the electricity sector, IMAGE found a greater reduction potential in Scenario 1 than Project Drawdown, leading to a lower emission level here. IMAGE found a lower reduction potential in Scenario 2, and a higher emission level compared to Project Drawdown. In the transport sector, IMAGE found lower reduction potentials than Project Drawdown, and thus higher emission levels in both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. In the residential sector, IMAGE found lower reduction potentials in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 compared to Project Drawdown, but they reached similar emission levels. For the industry sector, IMAGE found higher reduction potentials and lower emission levels in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Lastly, for CH4 emissions, IMAGE and Project Drawdown found an equal emission level in Scenario 1, but Scenario 2 showed a larger emissions gap between findings of IMAGE and Project Drawdown. Overall, the findings of the IMAGE model showed that substantial GHG emission reductions could take place with the mitigation measures of Project Drawdown. Generally, IMAGE and Project Drawdown differed slightly in their findings for Scenario 1. However, differences between Project Drawdown and IMAGE were often larger for Scenario 2, which may be caused by the integration between measures as these were mutually implemented.
dc.description.sponsorshipUtrecht University
dc.format.extent3515576
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.titleEvaluating the GHG reduction potentials of Project Drawdown, using integrated assessment model IMAGE
dc.type.contentMaster Thesis
dc.rights.accessrightsOpen Access
dc.subject.keywordsIMAGE; Drawdown; Modelling; Emission mitigation
dc.subject.courseuuSustainable Development


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