| dc.description.abstract | Water management in the Netherlands is extensive due to the history the country has with both extremes, droughts and especially floods. Droughts occur in the Netherlands in situations where a combination of severe cumulative precipitation deficit and a low discharge of the Rhine are present. A severe drought can jeopardize the freshwater availability which is crucial for many sectors in the Netherlands. The ‘Delta Program Freshwater’ is initiated with the objective to prepare the Netherlands for future changes in water availability. A freshwater goal has been set up which consists of ‘being resilient against a freshwater shortage in 2050’. In this research the region ‘Noord-Nederland’, which defines the freshwater goal as being resilient against a 1:20 drought and the region ‘West-Nederland’, which defines the freshwater goal as being resilient against a 1:30 drought will be examined. The regions differ quite substantially: region North largest thread is salinization which deteriorates agricultural irrigation, the largest thread for region West is the absence of water supply towards the region since it is highly dependent on water transport from upstream rivers and canals.
The research aim is to develop a method to quantify the effectiveness of multiple measures (strategies) that could be implemented to cope with drought consequences in both regions. Through various drought indicators the freshwater goal will be translated towards a quantitative described goal. The problem definition originates from the fact that being resilient against a freshwater shortage is a complex concept, since several types of drought exist, and drought can be quantified with many different variables. Three drought indicators are set up during this research: cumulative precipitation deficit, discharge below a certain level and water shortage. By using data sets from the KNMI, calculations that were performed in a quick scan instruments (Qwast model) and by interviewing stakeholders of the regions, thresholds were identified for the drought indicators to display the 1:20 and 1:30 droughts.
The drought indicators are compared in both the current scenario and a future scenario with significant climate change and significant socio-economic growth. Furthermore, an analysis is made on the impact of various strategies that could be implemented to cope with the consequences of drought. Finally, the business analytics product Power BI is utilized to build a decision support system in a dashboard, which is examined on its suitability to support drought adaptation planning. | |
