Offshore wind energy cost trends and learning curves.

Abstract

This thesis aims to give an insight in the historic cost trends and developments of offshore wind energy in the main five countries deploying this technology Europe. It has been done by analysing 86 operational offshore wind farms commissioned after 2000 till the ones under development that will be ready before the end of 2022. A first increase of the Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) is found that is linked to various factors like the distance to shore and depth, commodity prices and supply chain development till around 2015 when the cost starts decreasing. Analysis’ results indicate that this late cost improvement may continue in the coming years and it is caused by an amalgam of factors. Using CAPEX, Annual Energy Production, Weighed Average Cost of Capital and Operational Expenditures, the development of average Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) is shown to increase also in the first period from 120 €/MWh in 2000 towards 190 €/MWh in 2015 and then decreasing till 100 in the end of 2018, which is a direct result of the CAPEX decrease and the effort into improve the efficiency. The results indicate a learning in the last years that is expected to keep going in the near future, reaching values of 2.5-2 €/MW for the CAPEX and around 50€/MWh for the LCoE.