| dc.description.abstract | In order to contribute to the transition towards a carbon-neutral heating system and aid to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, this research has investigated the optimal mix of sustainable heating technologies at the neighbourhood level. By using the neighbourhood Overvecht in Utrecht as a case study, the most optimal techno-economic pathways at local scale towards a sustainable heating system by 2030 are established per district, based on the lowest societal costs. Herein, the Vesta MAIS model was used to assist with the analysis.Identifying the most techno-economic pathway included a three-phase method. Phase I consisted of collecting data and making adjustments to the Vesta MAIS model to allow a neighbourhood-level analysis. In the second phase, several scenarios to achieve a sustainable heating system by 2030 were calculated with Vesta MAIS, and the energy demand, emissions and societal costs were extracted. Phase III consisted of an analysis of the output parameters, and the determination of the optimal pathway towards a sustainable heating system by 2030. In addition, a sensitivity analysis investigated the robustness of the optimal pathway for various societal discount rates, learning curves and building improvement costs.The optimal pathway for Overvecht showed that for 14 districts a high temperature (HT) heat network is more attractive, while for 3 districts a low temperature (LT) heat network is optimal, and for 1 district individual heat pumps are the optimal option. For the districts with a LT heat network and individual heat pumps as the optimal option, the buildings’ energy labels are upgraded to A+ to account for the LT heat supply at building level. The buildings which have a HT heat network as optimal pathway do not require an upgrade to a higher energy label. Within this optimal pathway, an energy demand reduction of 20% (to 687 TJ/year) and an emission reduction of 70% (to 19 kt CO2/year) can be achieved, while the societal costs show an increase of 34% to 28 M€/year.In general, this study found that the expansion of a HT heat network to surrounding districts is the optimal option for districts with a high heat demand density and a dominance of average energy labels (C and D) present in these districts. The LT heat network is the optimal option for districts with a high heat demand density and low energy labels (E or lower), as these buildings require the implementation of insulation to reduce the high heat demand, which is economically attractive to combine with LT district heating. For areas with a low heat demand density, individual heat pumps are found to be the optimal option.To conclude, this research has shown that the optimal pathways towards a sustainable heating system consist of a combination of different system adjustments, including the expansion of the HT heat network, the instalment of LT heat networks, the implementation of individual heat pumps and the upgrade of a limited share of buildings to energy label A+. The heat demand density and the energy label are driving factors behind the optimal pathway for a district. A neighbourhood-level analysis with Vesta MAIS proved to be a useful tool to identify the most optimal techno-economic pathways at local scale towards a sustainable heating system by 2030. However, this research produced only a part of the required information to actually start the heat transition at neighbourhood-level and realize a sustainable heating system by 2030, as social and political factors also need to be taken into account.
Keywords: heat transition, sustainable heating, energy system modelling, neighbourhood-level, techno-economic pathways | |
