The Russian Pipe Dream, A case study on the influence of the European Commission in the cancellation of the South Stream gas pipeline

Abstract

This thesis researches to what extend the European Commission has showcased successful policy entrepreneurship in the cancellation of the South Stream gas pipeline. This Russian pipeline was cancelled by Russia in 2014, after the annexation of the Crimea had heightened tensions between Russia and the EU. Russia blamed the European Commission for obstructing the project. The European Commission was opposed to the project, but a number of participating Member States supported the project. The paper is a case study on the cancellation of the South Stream gas pipeline, testing the theory of Thomas Maltby. Maltby states that the European Commission is able to show limited policy entrepreneurship. This policy entrepreneurship means that the European Commission manages to achieve its preferred policies, despite the differing preferences of Member States. Just like in Maltby’s paper, this thesis uses the theories of Pierson and Kingdon to explain the creation of gaps that allow supranational institutions to operate beyond their intended boundaries and the creation of policy windows in which the institutions have the optimal time to push for their preferred policies. The paper shows that the Third Energy Package allowed the European Commission to frustrate the Russian efforts to construct the gas pipeline. However, this did not prevent construction to start and participating Member States committed themselves to the project. The turning point came with the crisis in Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea. This damaged the reputation of Russia as a reliable partner and increased the willingness to support Ukraine. In this dire situation, Russia cancelled the pipeline. The European Commission was able to show limited policy entrepreneurship. In the period after the cancellation. The Commission was able to convince Member States of the need for an oversight position. This allows the Commission to review all external bilateral energy deals of the EU. This increase of supranational external energy policy is a limited success and an example of policy entrepreneurship for the Commission.