| dc.description.abstract | The future power system may undergo significant changes in order to mitigate climate change. In order to balance future power supply and demand, it is important to obtain more insights into the effect of changes in both the magnitude and shape of future electricity demand. In this master thesis, potential future changes to the electricity demand pattern of the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden are investigated by disaggregating the current patterns into sectors and end use service patterns. Subsequently, potential changes to future demand patterns are quantified and modelled up to 2050 in 7 future demand scenarios. The results for the current demand patterns show a distribution of national demand patterns into sectors which is dominated by the industry, residential and service sectors in all countries. The future demand scenarios indicate an increase of peak demand and demand fluctuation due to electrification of heat demand and transport. Minimum demand may be reduced significantly because of a growth in decentralized PV generation. These results indicate that generation, transmission and back up capacity need to increase whereas base load will decrease. Increased efficiency of electric equipment, demand side management (DSM) and electricity storage could compensate for this. If indeed emission targets are to be fulfilled through considerable boosts of electric heating and transport and renewables, it is possible that equal efforts will be needed for efficiency gains, DSM and electricity storage. | |
