Does the Middle Kingdom rise up alone? The US exclusionist policy towards China's space program

Abstract

Aside from a short period in the 1950s, China has been developing its space program indigenously up to the 1980s. Largely managed by the PLA, the expensive program required justification on the grounds of prestige and military benefits. With the normalisation of Sino-US relations in 1979, science and technology cooperation as well as commercial engagement with the US on space became an option for China. Under Deng’s leadership in the 1980s, the economic rationale for the space program gained in importance and satellite launch agreements were signed. Meanwhile, the prestige generated by the accomplishments in space continued to be used as demonstration of the CCPs economic success. In 1989, US international outrage at the Tiananmen square incident caused economic sanctions that also hit the Chinese space sector. The real blow to Sino-US engagement in space came in 1999 with the publication of the Cox report on US export policy regarding China. This report greatly exaggerated flaws in the policy and the threat China posed at the time. Afterwards, an era in which China threat theory dictated Congress’ decision-making on China and space took off. By tying human rights and democratisation to the issue of space cooperation, a handful of US Congressmen have been able to stifle Sino-US space engagement. These policies combine to form the US exclusionist policy towards the Chinese space program, which is fragmented, not based on strategy and of limited effectiveness. How damaging this will be to US leadership in space is still to be seen.