Leapfrogging in the African Power Sector: The Effect of Mitigation Policies on Regional African Power Sector Development

Abstract

Africa severely lacks generation capacity, despite possessing an abundance of natural resources that could be used for electricity generation. Generation capacity will need to be increased to achieve economic and social development benefits. There are many initiatives to increase generation capacity in Africa, both from local governments and from international organizations such as the UN SE4ALL and US Power Africa initiatives. It is expected that Africa will undergo rapid electrification in the coming decades. Little research has been done with regards to how this generation capacity will develop. If it follows the example of other developing regions such as China and Brazil, it is expected that a fossil fuel intensive grid will develop. It is speculated that Africa can ‘leapfrog’ into a low-emissions grid as the late-comer effect makes renewable energy relatively more competitive than in other regions.

Based on a scenario analysis with the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-ECN, we estimate potential for leapfrogging for African sub-regions under different mitigation scenarios. From the baseline scenario it was established that electricity demand in Africa is expected to increase 5-fold by 2050 and that gas-fired power plants will become the dominant form of generation capacity for most of the continent. From simulation results it is found that African carbon emission can be reduced by 50% in a $10/tonne carbon tax scenario to 92% in a stringent $50/tonne carbon tax scenario. Mitigation potential differs significantly between African sub-regions. Morocco and Ethiopia show particular leapfrogging potential. Carbon tax could lead South Africa to divert from its coal-intensive grid. Oil and gas producing countries are least susceptible to mitigation measures. More research is needed to indicate which policies would be best suited to achieve mitigation in Africa.