| dc.description.abstract | The first target of the Kyoto Protocol for the Netherlands was 6% reductions of average CO2-equivalent emissions over 2008-2012 compared to 1990 levels. The vast majority of energy-related CO2 emissions, had however increased with 9.4%. Only due to the large reductions of other greenhouse gas emissions and partly the acquirement of emission credits, the target was reached. This research aimed to uncover the driving factors and its relation with the energy and climate policies behind these energy-related emissions, to better reduce emissions and accordingly reach future emission targets. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was executed to decompose these emissions into different kinds of volume, structure and intensity effects taking place at the demand sectors and indirectly at electricity and heat supply. Three main drivers were distinguished explaining 82.5% of the total observed change of +17.56 Mt by 2008-2012. At first the increased level of activity (in terms of economic output, travelled distance and number of households) caused an increase of +42.73 Mt. The second driver is related to this, namely the global crisis causing the large activity decrease at the economy sectors and transport since 2008, which may otherwise have reached as high as +56.74 Mt. by 2012. The third driver responsible for large reductions were the efficiency improvements, reflected in the energy intensity effects from final energy use at the main demand sectors (-16.74 Mt) and the energy efficiency effects considering primary inputs at electricity and heat supply (-11.51 Mt). Improving the efficiency was also the main decarbonization strategy in the Netherlands, in clear correlation with the observed effects over time. At the demand sectors this comprised different sector dependent conservation measures, at electricity and heat supply the CHP development clearly ruled the efficiency improvements. The savings effect from policies is however lower, as these effects still incorporate other structure effects and effects from autonomous improvement. The large upwards activity effect and associated influential weakening effect from the recession signify the importance to incorporate the impact of activity growth in energy and climate policies. Achieved efficiency effects show that efficiency policy remains a favorable strategy if there is more room for efficiency improvement. The encouragement of renewable energy and fuel substitution in decarbonization policy is also recommended, as these are indicated as potential drivers of future reductions. Taking into account these insights from historical developments helps to better curb future energy-related CO2 emissions. | |
