| dc.description.abstract | Recent years have shown a rapid decline in the costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) and similar cost reductions for battery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected. This has led to social and academic discussions on the possibility of installing PV + battery systems to be fully self-sufficient in energy supply and to defect from the grid, to avoid high grid fees. Concerns arise that if grid defection occurs, the electricity price increases significantly, pushing more consumers to defect from the grid. This feedback loop has been termed ‘the utility death spiral’.
Previous grid defection studies were conducted in regions with high solar irradiance throughout the year. In this study, the technical feasibility and economic viability of electricity grid defection was researched for individual households in the Netherlands, where solar radiation is significantly lower. In order to cover electricity supply in longer periods of little solar irradiance, a PV+BESS system alone would require a battery that is too large to be technical feasible, let alone be economically viable. Therefore, a micro combined heat and power (μCHP) unit is added to supply electricity (and heat) during the darker seasons.
By developing a Matlab model, the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of optimally sized PV+BESS+μCHP systems have been calculated for 16 dwelling types in 12 provinces, for the years 2017 to 2050. These LCOE’s were compared to the electricity prices to find the economic viability of grid defection per household type. Various scenario- and sensitivity -analyses were carried out over critical parameters such as technology costs and decision criteria, to find their influence on the possible grid defection rate and its impact on society.
The results show that disconnecting from the grid is not the most favorable option yet, but off-grid systems can reach grid parity in 2037 and onwards, depending on the household type. The household types that have the most attractive business case to go off-grid are flats and apartments, even though there is less rooftop surface available for PV.
The policy implication of this study is that from both economic and socially desirable perspectives, widespread disconnection might not be a realistic projection of the future. Given the plans of the Dutch government to phase out natural gas consumption in the built environment, the adoption of μCHP units is not likely to be stimulated. Other future possibilities that can trigger massive defection from the electricity grid include joint grid defection of multiple households and developments in new forms of distributed generation at household level. | |
