| dc.description.abstract | The Netherlands has been cultivating sugar beet in large agro-industrial co-operatives since the 19th century. In recent years, the sugar quota has limited sugar beet cultivation but the quota will expire in 2017. At the same time, the Dutch government aims to stimulate the biobased economy, therefore increasing the demand for biomass. For example, the proposed biorefinery project REDIFINERY is expected to consume four million tonnes of feedstock per year.
Several studies indicate that, with the increase in demand, large amounts of biomass are imported to The Netherlands, while locally cultivated biomass shows economic potential at world market prices. Therefore, in this research, the geographic potential of locally cultivated sugar beet as a biomass resource for non-food purposes in the south west of The Netherlands is determined up to 2030. This is achieved by using ArcGIS software, creating maps of the sugar beet yields and costs. These cover the whole research area of the south west of The Netherlands, and, then in more detail, the province of South Holland. Scenarios from PBL/CPB (WLO scenarios) are used to determine agricultural land availability for non-food purposes, and KWIN AGV data is used to determine the cost of cultivation. To determine the transport costs, a demand node is assumed on the Maasvlakte. Other important inputs in to the model are; soil type, experience with sugar beet cultivation and transport distance. To determine the potential, the findings are benchmarked against imported lignocellulosic biomass sources. The supply costs found are extrapolated until 2030 to determine the future of sugar beet as a biomass source and as a stepping stone for the Dutch biobased economy. Finally, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the locally grown sugar beets are compared to imported biomass.
In the south west of The Netherlands, the theoretical potential is estimated to be 198.8PJ (52Mt sugar beet, 8,946kt fermentable sugar). The technical potential, limited by the crop rotations and WLO scenarios, is estimated to be 1.9PJ (0.490Mt sugar beet, 84kt fermentable sugar). The economic potential, limited by the technical potential, is estimated to be 1.9PJ (0.490Mt sugar beet, 84kt fermentable sugar). If the province of South Holland is examined in detail, the theoretical potential is estimated to be 39.2PJ (10.3Mt sugar beet, 1.76Mt fermentable sugar); the technical potential, limited by crop rotations and land availability without harming the food and feed supply, is estimated to be 0.4PJ (0.094Mt sugar beet, 16kt fermentable sugar). The economic potential, again limited by the technical potential, is estimated to be 0.4PJ (0.094Mt sugar beet, 16kt fermentable sugar). The net present value (NPV) of the business as usual (BAU) and bio economy crop rotations are compared in South Holland and they show that the NPV would increase when sugar beet is increased in the rotation. The data, with the addition of lower and higher limits, is shown in table 1. The 0.49Mt of sugar beet cultivated for non-food purposes in the south west of The Netherlands makes a large contribution to the 1.6Mt currently cultivated. The 0.094Mt of sugar beet cultivated for non-food purposes in the province of South Holland also substantially contributes to the 0.3Mt currently cultivated. However, when the potentials found in the south west of The Netherlands are compared to the demand, which is set to rise, by the REDIFINIERY project for example, it will only be a small contribution.
Table 1 Theoretical, Technical and Economic potential of sugar beet cultivation found in this thesis
Reference case Lower limit Higher limit
Area PJ (total yield1) PJ (total yield ) PJ (total yield1)
Theoretical Potential SW-N3 198.8 (52 - 8,946) N.A. N.A.
SH 39.2 (10 - 1,763) N.A. N.A.
Technical Potential SW-N 1.9 (0.49 - 84) 1.0 (0.253 - 43) 1.9 (0.490 - 84)
SH2 0.4 (0.094 - 16) 0.2 (0.063 - 11) 0.4 (0.094 - 16)
Economic Potential SW-N3 1.9 (0.490 - 84) 0.1 (0.029 - 5) 21.9 (5.7 - 986)
SH2 0.4 (0.094 - 16) 0.1 (0.018 - 3) 4.4 (1.2 - 200)
The costs calculated are benchmarked against sugar production costs from imported lignocellulosic biomass and global raw sugar prices until 2030. The results show that Dutch sugar beet cultivation costs are projected to remain below global market prices for raw sugars, fermentable sugars derived from woodchips, and fermentable sugars derived from wood pellets until 2030. Lastly, the GHG emissions of ethanol from sugar beet are compared to those of woodchips, assuming that ethanol will be produced. The GHG emissions of sugar beet ethanol range from 38 to 40g CO2-eq/MJ ethanol and a GHG-saving performance of between 52% and 53%. This is insufficient to meet the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) (2009/28/EC) threshold for liquid biofuel installations installed after 2018 (60%).
Sugar beet cultivation in the south west of The Netherlands can compete economically until 2030 in the world biomass market. It has a total potential of 0.49Mt of sugar beet cultivated at or below world market prices. This increases even further if technical constraints on competition with the food supply are not taken into account. | |
