The Dutch Risk and Crisis Assemblage: How and why moral and political considerations are filtered out of the scenario thinking practice

Abstract

This thesis addresses the management or risks and crises through a focus on the scenario thinking practice in the Dutch risk and crisis assemblage. In recent years, a renewed risk-thinking mentality has come to be seen as the answer to a more globalized and heterogeneous security landscape of threats, risks and potential undesired future events. The practice of scenario thinking is a technological embodiment of this renewed focus on risks, which inevitably brings about many moral and political considerations posed as a dilemma against the importance of security. Through the scoring of impact, probability, costs and benefits, morally and politically charged decisions are made that deal with the worthy and less worthy lives, or the acceptance of a residual risk. For reasons that should be questioned, some moral and political considerations are filtered out of the scenario thinking practice. Drawing on this insight, this thesis aims to develop an understanding of practices that aid the filtering out of moral and political considerations. With the use of the assemblage analytic, a focus on the heterogeneous and contingent character of the Dutch risk and crisis assemblage helps pointing at the danger of filtering out moral and political consideration. Building on a vocabulary of government, neoliberalism and self-responsibilization, this thesis aims to provide an explanation for the reasons of why moral and political considerations are filtered out and calls for a critical scrutinizing of the practices in the Dutch risk and crisis management.