| dc.description.abstract | By policymakers, the increasing amount of electric vehicles in the transport sector is regarded to be a pathway to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality and decrease fossil fuel dependence. In this thesis, a model is used to quantitatively analyse and forecast the potential effects of passenger car electrification on the CO2 emissions (greenhouse gases) and pollutant emissions (which affect air quality) in the Netherlands in 2030. The model incorporates the total amounts, mileages, and (fuel) efficiencies of all cars to model CO2 and pollutant emissions from conventional (internal combustion engine) cars and (full) electric cars. It was found that in the business-as-usual scenario, the effects of electrification on CO2 emissions are small compared to the other modelled changes in the transport sector. The effect of electrification on air pollution emissions is larger; especially urban air quality improves from electrification. The effects of electrification could be further improved by increasing certain electrification components. Decreasing the fossil share in the electricity mix and increasing the amount of electric vehicles have the largest effects. Another, presumably less drastic measure could be to increase the average mileage of electric vehicles along with focusing this mileage on urban roads. The combined potential of improving all these electrification features is a 41-55% CO2 and a 53-78% pollutant emission reduction from passenger cars compared to current annual emissions. | |
