External Oil Supply Risk in Different Climate- and Supply Scenarios - Energy Security Scenarios Affected by Peak-Oil to 2035

Abstract

Energy has been stated to be 'the oxygen of the economy and the lifeblood of growth' (World Economic Forum, 2012). The inflow of energy for countries where domestic production is unable to meet domestic demand, is essential to keep their economies going and growing. Securing these supplies is thus of vital importance for these nations. The aim of this research was to combine and expand the research done by Yang et al (2014) and Aleklett et al (2010) by adding updated future external oil supply risk scenarios up to 2035, taking into account different climate- (CPS, NPS and 450) and oil-supply projections for the EU, the US, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world). This research considered the risks associated with supplies from oil-exporting nations, as well as the potential exports in future oil supply of these nations and adds the concepts of 'peak oil' and long-term external oil-supply risks (EOSRs) to the model of Yang et al (2014) and Aleklett et al (2010). This report focussed on the following question: What is the impact of different climate- and oil supply scenarios on external oil supply risks for major oil-importing countries up to 2035?