Electorale volatiliteit: Het effect van politiek vertrouwen, partijidentificatie en strategisch stemmen op electorale volatiliteit

Abstract

Why do some voters change their party vote less often than others? We propose that different kind of mechanisms at micro-level explains electorate volatility in the Netherlands between 1998 and 2006. These mechanisms are political trust, strategic voting and party identification. Knowledge plays a role in all of these mechanisms. We analyze these mechanisms of electorate volatility in a national Dutch sample of 3,682 respondents interviewed by the NKO in 1998, 2002 and 2006. Political trust reduces the probability of changing’ one vote. Strategic voting, however, increases the probability of electorate volatility. We have found little results supporting the party identification mechanism. The results confirm that political trust and strategic voting are identified as micro-mechanisms for electorate volatility.