The effects of climate change and associated glacier melting in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas on the water supply and water use of the Indus, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change leads to a temperature increase in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. As a result of a warming climate, glacier coverage in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas will be decreased at the end of the 21st century. This thesis studied the effects of a decrease in glacier coverage due to climate change on water availability and food production in the Pakistani part of the Indus basin. A decrease in glacier coverage has impacts on the Indus, which is originated in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. The Indus has the highest melt water contribution to the total river discharge of all rivers originated in the same mountain range. This means that the flow of the Indus will be highly affected by a change in glacier coverage. Pakistan is highly dependent on water supply of the Indus for irrigated agriculture. A decrease in glacier coverage in the coming decades in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas will lead to an increase in river discharge on the short term, in the first half of the 21st century, due to an increase in melt water. However, water availability will decrease on the long term, at the end of the 21st century. At the same moment, the population of Pakistan is expected to growth substantially, which will lead to an increased water demand. This increased water demand combined with a decreased water availability will cause water shortage for irrigation and thereby food insecurity.