| dc.description.abstract | In the past decades, an on-going trend of growing mobility throughout the world is visible. Although this growing mobility has a lot of benefits, it also creates a number of negative externalities, such as traffic congestion, accidents, and pollution. Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) is often mentioned as a tool to reduce these negative side effects of mobility. In the broadest sense, ITS can be described as a transport system which makes use of information and communication technology (Nijkamp et al., 1996). In this research, the focus is on the European road transport system. To be able to fully benefit from ITS technologies, cooperative ITS systems are needed (Piao & McDonald, 2008) with cooperation between different stakeholders. Important stakeholders in the development of these cooperative ITS systems are the road authorities and the automotive industry. However, the knowledge gap between in-vehicle intelligence (developed by the vehicle manufacturers) and roadway intelligence (the responsibility of road authorities) is currently increasing (Piao & McDonald, 2008). The aim of this research is to get a good overview of future ITS developments in the European Automotive sector in the coming twenty years, and based on these outcomes analyse how this may affect the road authorities throughout Europe and their present tasks. By doing this, the knowledge gap between the different road authorities in Europe and the European automotive industry is aimed to be reduced.
A scenario approach was chosen to develop possible futures of ITS development in the European automotive industry, in a structured way. Based on a literature review on ITS developments in the automotive industry, interviews were held with ITS experts from the automotive industry, consultancy and research institutes, drivers associations, traffic policy makers, and road authorities. The experts were asked about their opinions and uncertainties on future ITS developments. The data derived from the interviews was used to build future scenarios. Based on the two most important critical factors (Costs and Business Cases for ITS Technologies and Role of the Government) four different future scenarios were developed:
Scenario 1: United Industry
Scenario 2: Mutual Benefits
Scenario 3: Individual Profits
Scenario 4: Public goals, Private Profits
In scenario 1 there is a united automotive industry with shared ITS business cases, but a government who is not really involved in ITS. Scenario 2 is based on a high rate of governmental involvement and an automotive industry with shared ITS business cases. In scenario 3 the government is not really involved but there are some individual parties who see possible ITS business cases. The government is highly involved in scenario 4, but there are no real shared business cases in the automotive industry.
There is not one scenario that will become the real future, but it will probably be a combination of the four scenarios presented. Nevertheless, there are some developments that will continue to evolve in all four scenarios:
More ‘connected vehicles’ become available (either connected to the internet, to the infrastructure, and/or to each other).
Increased use of nomadic devices and their traffic related services in a vehicle.
Private parties are able to give individual trip and traffic advice, and by doing this they can influence traffic flows and traffic management.
More traffic related data becomes available.
More in-vehicle (safety related) ADAS systems.
Public acceptance of ITS technology remains uncertain, however, it can be stimulated by the government but not controlled.
Most of these developments will have an effect on the current main tasks of the road authorities namely traffic management and designing, building, and maintaining roads and roadside installations. The road authorities can influence the technological development of ITS technologies by installing or not installing intelligent infrastructure. When installing intelligent infrastructure to improve traffic safety, the automotive industry will be interested in developing safety features for their vehicles that are able to communicate with the intelligent infrastructure. This creates extra tasks for the road authorities in maintaining and operating the intelligent infrastructure. Furthermore, when looking at traffic management, it is less beneficial for road authorities to invest in intelligent infrastructure. The automotive industry is willing to develop vehicles that are able to communicate with the infrastructure of the road authorities, however, individual traffic advice can also be supplied by private parties such as the nomadic devices industry and their traffic related services and platforms. These private parties are able to take over some of the traffic management tasks of the road authorities. Nevertheless, the road authorities will remain responsible for everything that is happening on their roads. The monitoring of the data and advice given by the private parties will become a new responsibility of the road authorities to assure everything remains within the societal boundaries set by the governments and road authorities.
There are certain issues the (national) road authorities should keep in mind when dealing with ITS developments. These are, among others, creating societal boundaries, approaching ITS as a technology which focusses on traffic safety and traffic flows, staying up-to-date with the latest ITS developments, and keeping local and regional authorities informed about these developments. | |
