From System Model to Practical Feasibility: Delivering 35% Renewables in Guanajuato’s Electricity System

Abstract

This thesis investigates how a spatially explicit energy system model can guide the deployment of renewable electricity in the Mexican state of Guanajuato and contribute to achieving the 35% target set out in national climate policy. A Calliope model at the municipal level was developed that covers all 46 municipalities, with a resolution of two hours over a period of five years, and that includes wind, solar energy, combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), existing generation assets and inter-municipal transmission connections. The model was run to create a cost-optimal as well as five near-optimal (within a 10% cost range), spatial varying system configurations.

The results indicate that Guanajuato can achieve 35% by expanding wind and solar PV energy while relying on existing CCGTs for stability and balancing. Solar PV siting is location-flexible throughout the state; wind is site-selective and concentrates where strong sources coincide with large loads. SPORES reveals multiple near-optimal mixes that differ in technology shares but exhibit stable spatial regularities: wind capacity is repeatedly present in six municipalities, while Solar PV remains highly substitutable across all municipalities. This implies a state-level “design space” characterized by robust wind hotspots and high PV optionality, rather than a single optimal layout.

To assess practical feasibility, the analysis zooms in from municipal nodes to specific areas, identified as suitable for renewable project adoption, within the municipalities highlighted by the model. Using high-quality wind data for these sites, electricity and economic performance was recalculated. The results show that several sites around Dolores Hidalgo and Guanajuato city are investment ready, with electricity production costs lower than established wind parks in Mexico. Sites in San Miguel de Allende are competitive and could be attractive with modest policy or financial support. In Purísima del Rincón on the other hand, wind site performance turn out lower than the model findings, showing that indeed, practical feasibility assessment is needed.

The study provides a reproducible blueprint for state-level planning that links system optimization and site validation. Municipal-level modeling can select municipalities and indicative capacity ranges, while site-specific resource data convert signals into bankable projects or label them as unattractive. Policy and practice can build on the findings by prioritizing detailed bankability assesment for the identified Guanajuato City and Dolores Hidalgo sites and by designing targeted support to make medium-sized sites such as in San Miguel de Allende competitive.